Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Norfolk State Spartans
0-1 · #170 Elo
at
Fri, Sep 11, 7:00 PM ET
Scott Stadium · 72° · Mostly cloudy
Virginia Cavaliers
1-0 · #24 Elo
Spread UVA -43.5 (opened UVA -63.5)Total 53.5Moneyline NORF +2886 · UVA -5088
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
UVA -5088
89%
model margin UVA by 21.3
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
NORF +43.5
58%
22.2 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Under 53.5
53%
model total 45.2

The read

On rating alone Virginia Cavaliers are 17.1 points better (#24 vs #170 of 240), and UVA add 3.1 for home field; UVA carry a rest edge worth 1.1. The model lands on UVA by 21.3 against a market UVA by 43.5, so the spread lean is NORF by 22.2 points — a lean, not an edge: against closing lines this model covers about 49%. On the total the model sees 45.2 against 53.5.

Who has the edge

Model: UVA by 21.3 · market UVA by 43.5
Rating
Clear edge
UVA
UVA rated 17.1 points better on Elo (#24 vs #170).
Home & rest
Clear edge
UVA
UVA gets 3.1 points for home field and UVA 1.1 for rest.
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
UVA
UVA +26.0 per game over the last five, NORF −21.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
UVA
Consensus has UVA by 43.5; the model says UVA by 21.3.
context · not in the margin

The margin, factor by factor

Model: UVA by 21.3 · market UVA by 43.5
Norfolk State SpartansVirginia Cavaliers
1393 Elo · #170
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
UVA +17.1 pts
1701 Elo · #24
road
Home field
UVA +3.1 pts
home
6d
Rest
UVA +1.1 pts
13d
−18.7 pts vs UVA D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
UVA +25.7 pts
+7.0 pts vs NORF D
L · −21.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
UVA +23.5 pts
W · +26.0
NORF +43.5
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
UVA +43.5 pts
UVA -43.5

Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).

Dissect the matchup

CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)

Season

NORFUVA
0-1Record1-0
10.0Points for / game34.0
31.0Points against / game8.0
0-0 / 0-1Home / road1-0 / 0-0
1-0Against the spread1-0
0-1Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean.0-1
LLast 5W

Power ratings

NORFUVA
1393Elo1701
#170 of 240Rank#24 of 240
−5.1Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted.+2.8
−4.2Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good.+13.7
1608Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season.1590

Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.

Head to head

No meetings in our history.

How the margin was built

Rating gap
UVA +17.1 pts
Home field
UVA +3.1 pts
Rest
UVA +1.1 pts
Weather / roof
0.0 pts on the total
Model margin
UVA by 21.3
Model total
45.2 vs 53.5

Market · 1 books

Spread
UVA -43.5 · opened UVA -63.5
Total
53.5
Moneyline
NORF +2886 · UVA -5088
BookUVA spreadTotalNORF MLUVA ML
fanduel-43.5 (-110)53.5 (-110/-110)——
Spreadopened UVA -63.5 · now UVA -43.5 ▼ 20.0
Totalopened 53.5 · now 53.5

Consensus of the books we track, hourly, since we first priced the game. The arrow on the spread is from the home side: ▲ means the home side is laying more.

Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.