The read
On rating alone Louisville Cardinals are 12.5 points better (#25 vs #93 of 240), and LOU add 3.1 for home field. The model lands on LOU by 15.5 against a market LOU by 35.5, so the spread lean is VILL by 20.0 points — a lean, not an edge: against closing lines this model covers about 49%. On the total the model sees 54.7 against 52.5.
Who has the edge
The margin, factor by factor
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Season
| VILL | LOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 9-4 |
| 6.0 | Points for / game | 29.9 |
| 52.0 | Points against / game | 21.2 |
| 0-0 / 0-1 | Home / road | 6-3 / 3-1 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 4-9 |
| 1-0 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 6-7 |
| L | Last 5 | W W L L L |
Season numbers are from 2025 until this season has games.
Power ratings
| VILL | LOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1467 | Elo | 1691 |
| #93 of 240 | Rank | #25 of 240 |
| −1.5 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +5.2 |
| −2.7 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +8.8 |
| — | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | — |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- LOU +12.5 pts
- Home field
- LOU +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- LOU by 15.5
- Model total
- 54.7 vs 52.5
Market · 2 books
- Spread
- LOU -35.5 · opened LOU -24.5
- Total
- 52.5 · opened 55.5
- Moneyline
- VILL +2325 · LOU -10000
- Best price
- VILL +2400 fanduel · LOU -10000 fanduel
| Book | LOU spread | Total | VILL ML | LOU ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| fanduel | — | — | +2400 | -10000 |
| hardrockbet | — | — | +2250 | -10000 |
Consensus of the books we track, hourly, since we first priced the game. The arrow on the spread is from the home side: ▲ means the home side is laying more.
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.