Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Florida A&M Rattlers
0-1 last yr · #176 Elo
at
Thu, Sep 10, 8:00 PM ET
Hard Rock Stadium · 84° · 42% precip · Mostly cloudy
Miami Hurricanes
1-0 · #8 Elo
Spread MIA -53.5Total 60.5Moneyline FAMU +3458 · MIA -5088
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
MIA -5088
95%
model margin MIA by 28.9
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
FAMU +53.5
59%
24.6 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Under 60.5
53%
model total 51.3

The read

On rating alone Miami Hurricanes are 26.0 points better (#8 vs #176 of 240), and MIA add 3.1 for home field; FAMU carry a rest edge worth 0.2. The model lands on MIA by 28.9 against a market MIA by 53.5, so the spread lean is FAMU by 24.6 points — a lean, not an edge: against closing lines this model covers about 49%. On the total the model sees 51.3 against 60.5.

Who has the edge

Model: MIA by 28.9 · market MIA by 53.5
Rating
Clear edge
MIA
MIA rated 26.0 points better on Elo (#8 vs #176).
Home & rest
Clear edge
MIA
MIA gets 3.1 points for home field and FAMU 0.2 for rest.
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
MIA
MIA +39.0 per game over the last five, FAMU −42.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
MIA
Consensus has MIA by 53.5; the model says MIA by 28.9.
context · not in the margin

The margin, factor by factor

Model: MIA by 28.9 · market MIA by 53.5
Florida A&M RattlersMiami Hurricanes
1387 Elo · #176
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
MIA +26.0 pts
1855 Elo · #8
road
Home field
MIA +3.1 pts
home
7d
Rest
FAMU +0.2 pts
6d
−22.6 pts vs MIA D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
MIA +39.6 pts
+17.0 pts vs FAMU D
L · −42.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
MIA +40.5 pts
W · +39.0
FAMU +53.5
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
MIA +53.5 pts
MIA -53.5

Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).

Dissect the matchup

CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)

Season

FAMUMIA
0-1Record1-0
14.0Points for / game45.0
56.0Points against / game6.0
0-0 / 0-1Home / road0-0 / 1-0
0-1Against the spread1-0
1-0Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean.1-0
LLast 5W

Season numbers are from 2025 until this season has games.

Power ratings

FAMUMIA
1387Elo1855
#176 of 240Rank#8 of 240
−4.3Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted.+10.9
−6.1Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good.+18.3
—Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season.1515

Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.

Head to head

2024FAMU 9 at MIA 56MIA · MIA covered

How the margin was built

Rating gap
MIA +26.0 pts
Home field
MIA +3.1 pts
Rest
FAMU +0.2 pts
Weather / roof
0.0 pts on the total
Model margin
MIA by 28.9
Model total
51.3 vs 60.5

Market · 1 books

Spread
MIA -53.5
Total
60.5
Moneyline
FAMU +3458 · MIA -5088
BookMIA spreadTotalFAMU MLMIA ML
fanduel-53.5 (-110)60.5 (-110/-110)——
Spreadopened MIA -53.5 · now MIA -53.5
Totalopened 60.5 · now 60.5

Consensus of the books we track, hourly, since we first priced the game. The arrow on the spread is from the home side: ▲ means the home side is laying more.

Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.