The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
98%Miami HurricanesStrong✓
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
MIA by 48.1market MIA by 59.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
51.3 pointsmarket 66.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Miami Hurricanes at 98% to win, with the market at MIA by 59.5.
No single matchup area stands out; the call rests on the teams' overall results this season, adjusted for who they played.
Form: MIA has the better last five games by 109.8 points a game (MIA +39.8, FAMU -70.0).
Home field is with MIA, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it MIA by 48.1 against a market MIA by 59.5: 11.4 points of daylight in FAMU's favour. The model's total is 51.3 against a line of 66.5: 15.2 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model MIA by 48.1 · market MIA by 59.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Rushing game
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Third down & red zone
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Big plays
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Pass protection & rush
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Ball security
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Form (last 5)
MIA
Clear advantage
MIA +39.8 per game over the last five, FAMU −70.0.
Market
MIA
Clear advantage
Consensus has MIA by 59.5; the model says MIA by 48.1.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket MIA by 59.5 · model MIA by 48.1
Mkt MIA 59.5
Model MIA 48.1
← FAMU by 28tieMIA by 28 →
3.6% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 66.5 · model 51.3
Mkt 66.5
Model 51.3
24 pts6096 pts
32.1% of FBS games finish between 66.5 and 51.3. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
Spread
Sharp side: MIAModel disagrees
Opened
MIA -53.5
→
Market maker now
MIA -59.5
▲ 3 since open
→
Retail now
MIA -59.5
in line
9 moves6 books0 led
Thu, Sep 10, 1:20 PM first sharp move: MIA -56.5 → MIA -59.5
5 books followed within six hours
Retail was still MIA -57.5 at that point
Total
Sharp side: the overModel disagrees
Opened
60.5
→
Market maker now
65
▲ 2.5 since open
→
Retail now
65.3
in line
9 moves9 books0 led
Thu, Sep 10, 1:20 PM first sharp move: 62.5 → 65
5 books followed within six hours
Retail was still 62.5 at that point
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
