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North Carolina A&T Aggies at Georgia State Panthers
Fri, Sep 4, 7:00 PM ET · Center Parc StadiumFINAL 10–59Backtest · not lockedThis game finished before the model ran on it, so the call was reconstructed afterward from pre-game ratings. It counts in the backtest table on the track record, never in the locked record.
No line
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.✗
NCAT
56%
model margin NCAT by 2.8
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.—
No line
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model total 58.5
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina A&T Aggies | 1327 | -6.9 | -10.9 | 1304 | 1 |
| Georgia State Panthers | 1387 | 0.3 | -0.5 | 1410 | 1 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- NCAT +106 Elo
- Home field
- GAST +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- NCAT by 2.8
- Market spread
- —
- Model total
- 58.5 vs —
- Moneyline
- —
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.