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UAB Blazers at Illinois Fighting Illini
Thu, Sep 3, 9:00 PM ET · Gies Memorial StadiumFINAL 23–42Backtest · not lockedThis game finished before the model ran on it, so the call was reconstructed afterward from pre-game ratings. It counts in the backtest table on the track record, never in the locked record.
No line
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.✓
ILL
80%
model margin ILL by 14.5
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.—
No line
—
model total 54.0
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UAB Blazers | 1406 | -0.8 | -3.9 | 1630 | 1 |
| Illinois Fighting Illini | 1647 | 4.6 | 7.2 | 1423 | 1 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- ILL +207 Elo
- Home field
- ILL +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- ILL by 14.5
- Market spread
- —
- Model total
- 54.0 vs —
- Moneyline
- —
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.