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UCLA Bruins at California Golden Bears
Sat, Sep 5, 10:30 PM ET · California Memorial Stadium · 66° · Mostly sunny
UCLA -2.5 · O/U 53.5
UCLA -135 · CAL +114
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
CAL +114
61%
model margin CAL by 5.1
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
CAL +2.5
53%
7.6 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean
Over 53.5
51%
model total 55.6
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCLA Bruins | 1463 | -0.9 | 2.3 | — | 0 |
| California Golden Bears | 1500 | 2.9 | 1.1 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- CAL +37 Elo
- Home field
- CAL +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- CAL by 5.1
- Market spread
- UCLA -2.5
- Model total
- 55.6 vs 53.5
- Moneyline
- UCLA -135 · CAL +114
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.