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Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils at Sacramento State Hornets
Sat, Sep 5, 10:00 PM ET · Hornet Stadium · 78° · Sunny
SAC -37.5 · O/U 56.5
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Lean
MVSU
54%
model margin MVSU by 1.7
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
MVSU +37.5
63%
39.2 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean
Under 56.5
50%
model total 55.2
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sacramento State Hornets | 1415 | -3.0 | -1.2 | 1422 | 1 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- MVSU +85 Elo
- Home field
- SAC +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- MVSU by 1.7
- Market spread
- SAC -37.5
- Model total
- 55.2 vs 56.5
- Moneyline
- —
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.