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Mercyhurst Lakers at New Mexico State Aggies
Sat, Sep 5, 9:00 PM ET · Aggie Memorial Stadium · 94° · Mostly sunny
NMSU -29.5 · O/U 52.5
MERC +2200 · NMSU -8000
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
MERC +2200
64%
model margin MERC by 6.5
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
MERC +29.5
62%
36.0 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean
Over 52.5
51%
model total 54.3
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mercyhurst Lakers | — | — | — | — | — |
| New Mexico State Aggies | 1329 | -4.9 | -2.2 | 1483 | 1 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- MERC +171 Elo
- Home field
- NMSU +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- MERC by 6.5
- Market spread
- NMSU -29.5
- Model total
- 54.3 vs 52.5
- Moneyline
- MERC +2200 · NMSU -8000
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.