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South Dakota State Jackrabbits at Northwestern Wildcats
Sat, Sep 5, 8:00 PM ET · Northwestern Medicine Field at Martin Stadium · 77° · 17 mph wind
NU -12.5 · O/U 48.5
SDST +370 · NU -485
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
NU -485
67%
model margin NU by 7.9
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
SDST +12.5
52%
4.6 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean
Over 48.5
51%
model total 50.0
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Dakota State Jackrabbits | 1482 | -0.7 | -1.0 | — | 0 |
| Northwestern Wildcats | 1570 | 1.9 | 7.4 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- NU +87 Elo
- Home field
- NU +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- -1.7 pts on the total
- Model margin
- NU by 7.9
- Market spread
- NU -12.5
- Model total
- 50.0 vs 48.5
- Moneyline
- SDST +370 · NU -485
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.