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Hampton Pirates at Maryland Terrapins
Sat, Sep 5, 8:00 PM ET · SECU Stadium · 78° · Mostly clear
MD -45.5 · O/U 56.5
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Lean
HAMP
53%
model margin HAMP by 1.5
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
HAMP +45.5
66%
47.0 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Coin flip
Under 56.5
50%
model total 56.1
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hampton Pirates | — | — | — | — | — |
| Maryland Terrapins | 1418 | -0.0 | 0.9 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- HAMP +82 Elo
- Home field
- MD +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- HAMP by 1.5
- Market spread
- MD -45.5
- Model total
- 56.1 vs 56.5
- Moneyline
- —
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.