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Utah Tech Trailblazers at #14BYU Cougars
Sat, Sep 5, 8:00 PM ET · LaVell Edwards Stadium · 88° · 12 mph wind · Mostly sunny
BYU -49.5 · O/U 61.5
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
BYU
86%
model margin BYU by 19.0
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
UTU +49.5
60%
30.5 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Under 61.5
52%
model total 55.5
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utah Tech Trailblazers | 1457 | -1.8 | -4.2 | — | 0 |
| BYU Cougars | 1744 | 5.8 | 9.7 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- BYU +287 Elo
- Home field
- BYU +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- BYU by 19.0
- Market spread
- BYU -49.5
- Model total
- 55.5 vs 61.5
- Moneyline
- —
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.