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VMI Keydets at Virginia Tech Hokies
Sat, Sep 5, 7:30 PM ET · Lane Stadium · 83° · 10 mph wind · Mostly cloudy
VT -54.5 · O/U 61.5
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Lean
VT
56%
model margin VT by 2.5
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
VMI +54.5
67%
52.0 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Under 61.5
52%
model total 55.3
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VMI Keydets | 1443 | -4.0 | -5.3 | — | 0 |
| Virginia Tech Hokies | 1433 | -0.2 | 2.7 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- VMI +11 Elo
- Home field
- VT +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- VT by 2.5
- Market spread
- VT -54.5
- Model total
- 55.3 vs 61.5
- Moneyline
- —
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.