The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
51%VMI KeydetsLean✗
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
VMI by 0.4market VT by 54.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
55.3 pointsmarket 60.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has VMI Keydets at 51% to win, with the market at VT by 54.5.
No single matchup area stands out; the call rests on the teams' overall results this season, adjusted for who they played.
Form: VT has the better last five games by 91.4 points a game (VT +21.4, VMI -70.0).
Home field is with VT, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it VMI by 0.4 against a market VT by 54.5: 54.9 points of daylight in VMI's favour. The model's total is 55.3 against a line of 60.5: 5.2 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model VMI by 0.4 · market VT by 54.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor VT, but the model still picks VMI. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Rushing game
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Third down & red zone
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Big plays
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Pass protection & rush
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Ball security
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Form (last 5)
VT
Clear advantage
VT +21.4 per game over the last five, VMI −70.0.
Market
VT
Clear advantage
Consensus has VT by 54.5; the model says VMI by 0.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket VT by 54.5 · model VMI by 0.4
Mkt VT 54.5
Model VMI 0.4
← VMI by 28tieVT by 28 →
61.9% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 3 and 7 and 10 and 14. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 60.5 · model 55.3
Mkt 60.5
Model 55.3
24 pts6096 pts
10.3% of FBS games finish between 60.5 and 55.3. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
