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SE Louisiana Lions at South Alabama Jaguars
Sat, Sep 5, 7:00 PM ET · Hancock Whitney Stadium · 82° · Intermittent clouds
USA -13.5 · O/U 52.5
SELA +400 · USA -535
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
USA -535
67%
model margin USA by 7.6
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
SELA +13.5
52%
5.9 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Over 52.5
52%
model total 57.8
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SE Louisiana Lions | 1376 | -6.6 | -5.7 | — | 0 |
| South Alabama Jaguars | 1458 | -0.8 | -2.5 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- USA +82 Elo
- Home field
- USA +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- USA by 7.6
- Market spread
- USA -13.5
- Model total
- 57.8 vs 52.5
- Moneyline
- SELA +400 · USA -535
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.