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Murray State Racers at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
Sat, Sep 5, 7:00 PM ET · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium · 97° · Intermittent clouds
MTSU -22.5 · O/U 55.5
MUR +1100 · MTSU -2100
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Lean
MTSU -2100
55%
model margin MTSU by 2.2
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
MUR +22.5
57%
20.3 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean
Over 55.5
51%
model total 57.1
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Murray State Racers | 1368 | -6.8 | -5.9 | — | 0 |
| Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 1353 | -2.9 | -3.8 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- MUR +15 Elo
- Home field
- MTSU +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- MTSU by 2.2
- Market spread
- MTSU -22.5
- Model total
- 57.1 vs 55.5
- Moneyline
- MUR +1100 · MTSU -2100
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.