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Florida International Panthers at South Florida Bulls
Sat, Sep 5, 7:00 PM ET · Raymond James Stadium · 86° · Intermittent clouds
USF -14.5 · O/U 52.5
FIU +490 · USF -675
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
USF -675
73%
model margin USF by 10.9
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
FIU +14.5
51%
3.6 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Over 52.5
55%
model total 65.4
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida International Panthers | 1503 | 2.1 | -2.4 | — | 0 |
| South Florida Bulls | 1644 | 9.3 | 5.4 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- USF +141 Elo
- Home field
- USF +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- USF by 10.9
- Market spread
- USF -14.5
- Model total
- 65.4 vs 52.5
- Moneyline
- FIU +490 · USF -675
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.