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Houston Christian Huskies at Rice Owls
Sat, Sep 5, 7:00 PM ET · Rice Stadium · 83° · Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms
RICE -22.5 · O/U 47.5
HCU +1500 · RICE -3600
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Lean
RICE -3600
54%
model margin RICE by 2.0
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
HCU +22.5
57%
20.5 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Over 47.5
53%
model total 54.6
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Christian Huskies | 1428 | -4.2 | -6.8 | — | 0 |
| Rice Owls | 1409 | -6.8 | -1.8 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- HCU +20 Elo
- Home field
- RICE +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- RICE by 2.0
- Market spread
- RICE -22.5
- Model total
- 54.6 vs 47.5
- Moneyline
- HCU +1500 · RICE -3600
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.