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Nicholls Colonels at Kansas State Wildcats
Sat, Sep 5, 7:00 PM ET · Bill Snyder Family Stadium · 76° · Mostly sunny
KSU -41.5 · O/U 54.5
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
KSU
82%
model margin KSU by 16.0
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
NICH +41.5
59%
25.5 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Under 54.5
51%
model total 51.5
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholls Colonels | 1393 | -6.4 | -1.5 | — | 0 |
| Kansas State Wildcats | 1626 | 4.9 | 5.6 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- KSU +232 Elo
- Home field
- KSU +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- KSU by 16.0
- Market spread
- KSU -41.5
- Model total
- 51.5 vs 54.5
- Moneyline
- —
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.