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Austin Peay Governors at Vanderbilt Commodores
Sat, Sep 5, 7:00 PM ET · FirstBank Stadium · 98° · Intermittent clouds
VAN -29.5 · O/U 58.5
APSU +2000 · VAN -6500
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
VAN -6500
83%
model margin VAN by 17.0
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
APSU +29.5
54%
12.5 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean
Over 58.5
51%
model total 59.9
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Peay Governors | 1485 | -3.1 | 0.3 | — | 0 |
| Vanderbilt Commodores | 1736 | 13.5 | 7.3 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- VAN +251 Elo
- Home field
- VAN +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- VAN by 17.0
- Market spread
- VAN -29.5
- Model total
- 59.9 vs 58.5
- Moneyline
- APSU +2000 · VAN -6500
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.