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Abilene Christian Wildcats at #12Texas Tech Red Raiders
Sat, Sep 5, 7:00 PM ET · Galaxy Stadium · 96° · 13 mph wind · Mostly sunny
TTU -43.5 · O/U 59.5
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
TTU
93%
model margin TTU by 25.8
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
ACU +43.5
56%
17.7 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Under 59.5
53%
model total 51.1
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abilene Christian Wildcats | 1390 | -2.3 | -3.8 | — | 0 |
| Texas Tech Red Raiders | 1798 | 9.5 | 16.3 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- TTU +409 Elo
- Home field
- TTU +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- -0.4 pts on the total
- Model margin
- TTU by 25.8
- Market spread
- TTU -43.5
- Model total
- 51.1 vs 59.5
- Moneyline
- —
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.