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Wyoming Cowboys at Colorado State Rams
Sat, Sep 5, 6:00 PM ET · Canvas Stadium · 94° · Intermittent clouds
CSU -3 · O/U 46.5
WYO +130 · CSU -155
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Lean
WYO +130
50%
model margin WYO by 0.2
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
WYO +3
51%
3.2 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Under 46.5
52%
model total 41.0
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wyoming Cowboys | 1406 | -8.3 | 5.8 | — | 0 |
| Colorado State Rams | 1348 | -5.0 | -3.1 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- WYO +58 Elo
- Home field
- CSU +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- WYO by 0.2
- Market spread
- CSU -3
- Model total
- 41.0 vs 46.5
- Moneyline
- WYO +130 · CSU -155
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.