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Alcorn State Braves at Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Sat, Sep 5, 5:00 PM ET · M. M. Roberts Stadium · 90° · 10 mph wind · Intermittent clouds
USM -19.5 · O/U 50.5
ALCN +900 · USM -1600
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
USM -1600
62%
model margin USM by 5.5
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
ALCN +19.5
55%
14.0 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Over 50.5
52%
model total 55.6
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alcorn State Braves | 1380 | -7.9 | -7.2 | — | 0 |
| Southern Miss Golden Eagles | 1425 | -1.9 | -1.3 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- USM +45 Elo
- Home field
- USM +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- USM by 5.5
- Market spread
- USM -19.5
- Model total
- 55.6 vs 50.5
- Moneyline
- ALCN +900 · USM -1600
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.