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North Alabama Lions at Arkansas Razorbacks
Sat, Sep 5, 4:15 PM ET · Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium · 99° · Partly sunny
ARK -40.5 · O/U 63.5
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Lean
ARK
58%
model margin ARK by 3.7
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
UNA +40.5
62%
36.8 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Coin flip
Under 63.5
50%
model total 63.4
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Alabama Lions | 1451 | -5.0 | -4.4 | — | 0 |
| Arkansas Razorbacks | 1462 | 7.7 | 0.7 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- ARK +11 Elo
- Home field
- ARK +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- ARK by 3.7
- Market spread
- ARK -40.5
- Model total
- 63.4 vs 63.5
- Moneyline
- —
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.