← College Football slate
Northern Illinois Huskies at #22Iowa Hawkeyes
Sat, Sep 5, 4:15 PM ET · Kinnick Stadium · 94° · Mostly sunny
IOWA -31.5 · O/U 44.5
NIU +4000 · IOWA -50000
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
IOWA -50000
91%
model margin IOWA by 23.7
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
NIU +31.5
53%
7.8 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean
Over 44.5
50%
model total 45.6
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Illinois Huskies | 1374 | -5.0 | -0.2 | — | 0 |
| Iowa Hawkeyes | 1746 | 6.9 | 13.5 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- IOWA +372 Elo
- Home field
- IOWA +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- IOWA by 23.7
- Market spread
- IOWA -31.5
- Model total
- 45.6 vs 44.5
- Moneyline
- NIU +4000 · IOWA -50000
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.