Probetrics — Sports Analytics
College Football slate
Oklahoma State Cowboys at Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Sat, Sep 5, 3:45 PM ET · H. A. Chapman Stadium · 100° · Mostly sunny
OKST -13.5 · O/U 57.5
OKST -550 · TLSA +410
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
TLSA +410
64%
model margin TLSA by 6.1
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
TLSA +13.5
57%
19.6 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Under 57.5
53%
model total 50.0

Power ratings

TeamEloOffDefSOSGP
Oklahoma State Cowboys1314-5.62.20
Tulsa Golden Hurricane1369-1.6-2.50

Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.

How the margin was built

Rating gap
TLSA +55 Elo
Home field
TLSA +3.1 pts
Rest
Even
Weather / roof
0.0 pts on the total
Model margin
TLSA by 6.1
Market spread
OKST -13.5
Model total
50.0 vs 57.5
Moneyline
OKST -550 · TLSA +410

Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.