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Oklahoma State Cowboys at Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Sat, Sep 5, 3:45 PM ET · H. A. Chapman Stadium · 100° · Mostly sunny
OKST -13.5 · O/U 57.5
OKST -550 · TLSA +410
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
TLSA +410
64%
model margin TLSA by 6.1
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
TLSA +13.5
57%
19.6 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Under 57.5
53%
model total 50.0
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma State Cowboys | 1314 | -5.6 | 2.2 | — | 0 |
| Tulsa Golden Hurricane | 1369 | -1.6 | -2.5 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- TLSA +55 Elo
- Home field
- TLSA +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- TLSA by 6.1
- Market spread
- OKST -13.5
- Model total
- 50.0 vs 57.5
- Moneyline
- OKST -550 · TLSA +410
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.