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Towson Tigers at Navy Midshipmen
Sat, Sep 5, 3:30 PM ET · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium · 83° · Intermittent clouds
NAVY -31.5 · O/U 50.5
TOW +5000 · NAVY -100000
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
NAVY -100000
86%
model margin NAVY by 19.0
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
TOW +31.5
54%
12.5 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Over 50.5
52%
model total 54.9
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Towson Tigers | 1423 | -2.6 | -3.3 | — | 0 |
| Navy Midshipmen | 1710 | 3.7 | 6.5 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- NAVY +287 Elo
- Home field
- NAVY +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- NAVY by 19.0
- Market spread
- NAVY -31.5
- Model total
- 54.9 vs 50.5
- Moneyline
- TOW +5000 · NAVY -100000
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.