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Tulane Green Wave at Duke Blue Devils
Sat, Sep 5, 3:30 PM ET · Wallace Wade Stadium · 97° · Intermittent clouds
DUKE -7.5 · O/U 50.5
TULN +275 · DUKE -345
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Lean
DUKE -345
56%
model margin DUKE by 2.9
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
TULN +7.5
52%
4.6 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Over 50.5
54%
model total 61.2
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulane Green Wave | 1687 | 1.9 | 7.4 | — | 0 |
| Duke Blue Devils | 1684 | 10.6 | 0.9 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- TULN +4 Elo
- Home field
- DUKE +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- DUKE by 2.9
- Market spread
- DUKE -7.5
- Model total
- 61.2 vs 50.5
- Moneyline
- TULN +275 · DUKE -345
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.