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Furman Paladins at #20Tennessee Volunteers
Sat, Sep 5, 3:30 PM ET · Neyland Stadium · 95° · Intermittent clouds
TENN -48.5 · O/U 66.5
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
TENN
78%
model margin TENN by 13.4
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
FUR +48.5
62%
35.1 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean
Under 66.5
51%
model total 65.1
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Furman Paladins | 1449 | -2.9 | -5.4 | — | 0 |
| Tennessee Volunteers | 1636 | 10.0 | 4.3 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- TENN +187 Elo
- Home field
- TENN +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- TENN by 13.4
- Market spread
- TENN -48.5
- Model total
- 65.1 vs 66.5
- Moneyline
- —
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.