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Tennessee State Tigers at #3Georgia Bulldogs
Sat, Sep 5, 3:00 PM ET · Sanford Stadium · 78° · Mostly sunny
UGA -48.5 · O/U 55.5
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
UGA
91%
model margin UGA by 23.1
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
TNST +48.5
59%
25.4 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Under 55.5
51%
model total 52.1
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee State Tigers | 1481 | -1.4 | -1.7 | — | 0 |
| Georgia Bulldogs | 1842 | 8.4 | 13.6 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- UGA +362 Elo
- Home field
- UGA +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- UGA by 23.1
- Market spread
- UGA -48.5
- Model total
- 52.1 vs 55.5
- Moneyline
- —
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.