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Duquesne Dukes at Air Force Falcons
Sat, Sep 5, 1:00 PM ET · Falcon Stadium · 83°
AFA -31.5 · O/U 55.5
DUQ +2000 · AFA -6500
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
AFA -6500
73%
model margin AFA by 10.6
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
DUQ +31.5
57%
20.9 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean
Over 55.5
51%
model total 58.2
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duquesne Dukes | 1345 | -8.3 | -11.6 | — | 0 |
| Air Force Falcons | 1482 | -0.1 | 1.9 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- AFA +136 Elo
- Home field
- AFA +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- AFA by 10.6
- Market spread
- AFA -31.5
- Model total
- 58.2 vs 55.5
- Moneyline
- DUQ +2000 · AFA -6500
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.