← College Football slate
Youngstown State Penguins at Kentucky Wildcats
Sat, Sep 5, 1:00 PM ET · Kroger Field · 84°
UK -22.5 · O/U 61.5
YSU +1000 · UK -1800
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
UK -1800
70%
model margin UK by 9.1
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
YSU +22.5
55%
13.4 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Under 61.5
52%
model total 56.0
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Youngstown State Penguins | 1431 | -1.7 | -5.1 | — | 0 |
| Kentucky Wildcats | 1541 | 0.4 | 4.7 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- UK +109 Elo
- Home field
- UK +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- UK by 9.1
- Market spread
- UK -22.5
- Model total
- 56.0 vs 61.5
- Moneyline
- YSU +1000 · UK -1800
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.