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"Fair" is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome; "book" is the best live sportsbook price for it (hover for the book). A green book price is longer than fair — value if you trust the model. Method prices update with each odds sync.
Median sportsbook implied win probability (vig included) at each odds snapshot since we started tracking this fight. A rising line = money and respect moving toward that fighter.
The model makes Andrusca a solid 64% favorite. Expect Andrusca to chase the takedown (2.7/15 min at 21%) while Wood tries to keep it standing behind 71% takedown defense. Andrusca is most dangerous early — 5 of 9 tracked wins ended in the first round. Andrusca's most likely path is by KO/TKO (30%), and the fight goes the distance 52% of the time.
Model: recent-fight output & defense rates (ESPN box stats), career method splits, durability, layoffs, and physical edges through a bounded logistic; weights tuned by walk-forward backtest on 1,500+ UFC fights — 61% winner accuracy and 32% exact winner-plus-method on 204 held-out fights (vs 26% picking favorite-by-decision). Probabilities are discounted in boom-or-bust matchups (both fighters' bouts ending fast) and squeezed toward the betting market's implied odds where a line exists — divergence beyond 10 points counts half. Experimental — size responsibly.
| Book | P. Andrusca to winPrice on this fighter winning by any method. Negative = favorite (risk that much to win $100); positive = underdog ($100 wins that much). | N. Wood to win | RoundsTotal-rounds line. 2.5 = the bet is whether the fight gets past the halfway mark of round 3 (2:30). Over pays if it does. | O / U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bodog | — | +110 | — | — / — |
| Bovada | — | +110 | — | — / — |
| DraftKings | — | +110 | — | — / — |
| Hard Rock | — | +110 | — | — / — |
| polymarket | — | -100 | — | — / — |
| unibet | — | +108 | — | — / — |