Books price Aliev at 57% to win (vig removed) — our model has value of +7.0% on DavisEdge = our model's win probability minus the market's implied probability (after removing the sportsbook's margin). Positive = the model thinks this fighter wins more often than the odds suggest, so their price is the value side. Bigger gaps deserve more skepticism, not more money.
"Fair" is the model's no-vig price for that exact outcome — compare it to your book's method-of-victory market: a book price longer than fair is value if you trust the model. (Our odds feed doesn't carry method markets, so we can't auto-compare yet.)
Median sportsbook implied win probability (vig included) at each odds snapshot since we started tracking this fight. A rising line = money and respect moving toward that fighter.
The model makes Aliev a narrow 50% favorite, cooler than the market's 57% — the value sits with Davis. Expect Davis to chase the takedown (2.0/15 min at 44%) while Aliev tries to keep it standing behind 80% takedown defense. Aliev tends to settle in for the long haul — 9 of 11 tracked fights reached the judges. Aliev's most likely path is on the scorecards (38%), and the fight goes the distance 53% of the time.
Model: recent-fight output & defense rates (ESPN box stats), career method splits, durability, layoffs, and physical edges through a bounded logistic; weights tuned by walk-forward backtest on 1,535 UFC fights — 61% winner accuracy and 32% exact winner-plus-method on 204 held-out fights (vs 26% picking favorite-by-decision). Probabilities are discounted in boom-or-bust matchups (both fighters' bouts ending fast) and squeezed toward the betting market's implied odds where a line exists — divergence beyond 10 points counts half. Experimental — size responsibly.
| Book | M. Davis to winPrice on this fighter winning by any method. Negative = favorite (risk that much to win $100); positive = underdog ($100 wins that much). | N. Aliev to win | RoundsTotal-rounds line. 2.5 = the bet is whether the fight gets past the halfway mark of round 3 (2:30). Over pays if it does. | O / U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline | +120 | -140 | — | — / — |
| BetRivers | +123 | -155 | — | — / — |
| BetUS | +118 | -140 | — | — / — |
| FanDuel | +128 | -164 | — | — / — |