Books price Pinas at 70% to win (vig removed) — our model has value of +4.6% on PinasEdge = our model's win probability minus the market's implied probability (after removing the sportsbook's margin). Positive = the model thinks this fighter wins more often than the odds suggest, so their price is the value side. Bigger gaps deserve more skepticism, not more money.
The model makes Pinas a clear 74% favorite, more confident than the market's 70%. Almeida will out-work him on volume (3.2 vs 0.9/min) — Pinas's route is a finish, not a points battle. Pinas is most dangerous early — 7 of 9 tracked wins ended in the first round. Pinas's most likely path is by KO/TKO (34%), and the fight goes the distance 45% of the time — if it ends inside the distance, round 1 carries the most risk.
Model: recent-fight output & defense rates (ESPN box stats), career method splits, durability, layoffs, and physical edges through a bounded logistic; weights tuned by walk-forward backtest on 1,523 UFC fights — 61% winner accuracy and 32% exact winner-plus-method on 192 held-out fights (vs 26% picking favorite-by-decision). Experimental — size responsibly.
| Book | C. Almeida to winPrice on this fighter winning by any method. Negative = favorite (risk that much to win $100); positive = underdog ($100 wins that much). | D. Pinas to win | RoundsTotal-rounds line. 2.5 = the bet is whether the fight gets past the halfway mark of round 3 (2:30). Over pays if it does. | O / U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +200 | -250 | — | — / — |
| BetOnline | +210 | -250 | 1.5 | -110 / -110 |
| BetRivers | +205 | -265 | — | — / — |
| Bovada | +195 | -235 | 1.5 | -110 / -120 |
| DraftKings | +205 | -250 | 1.5 | -110 / -120 |
| FanDuel | +210 | -255 | — | — / — |
| Caesars | +225 | -275 | — | — / — |
