No-Vig Odds (Fair Odds): Definition and Example
Why the two prices add up to more than 100%
A book that offered both sides of a market at their true chances would earn nothing on average. So it shades both prices, and the two implied chances add up to more than 100%. The amount over 100% is the margin, called the vig, juice or hold.
Removing the vig: a worked example
Take a prop priced -115 on the over and -105 on the under. Convert each price to the chance it implies, add them, then divide each by the total so they sum to 100%.
- Implied chance of the over (115 / 215)
- 53.49%
- Implied chance of the under (105 / 205)
- 51.22%
- Sum of the two
- 104.71%
- The margin (sum minus 100%)
- 4.71%
- No-vig over (53.49% / 104.71%)
- 51.08%
- No-vig under (51.22% / 104.71%)
- 48.92%
- The same, as fair prices
- over -104, under +104
This is the proportional method: it scales both sides by the same factor. It is the simplest method and the one the site's own no-vig numbers use.
What a no-vig price is and is not
A no-vig price is an estimate of the market's view of the chance, not the true chance. Books do not always split their margin evenly between the two sides, and a market can simply be wrong. Probetrics calls the average across books the fair line and reads a player's hit rate against it, instead of against 50%. It is the market's opinion, never ours.
A price on one side only (an anytime touchdown, an over-only alternate) has no opposite side to scale against, so it cannot be de-vigged. Its implied chance keeps the margin and is marked as such.
Questions and answers
- What does no-vig mean?
- It means the sportsbook's margin has been removed from a two-sided price, so the chances of the two sides add to 100% instead of a little more.
- What is the vig?
- The vig (vigorish, juice or hold) is the margin a sportsbook builds into its prices. At -115 and -105 the two implied chances add to 104.71%, so the vig is 4.71%.
- Are no-vig odds the true odds?
- No. They are the market's own estimate with the margin removed. They can be wrong, and books can split their margin unevenly, so treat them as the market's view rather than the truth.
Read next
- Implied probabilityImplied probability is the chance a price says an outcome has, found by converting the odds, and it puts American, decimal and fractional prices on one 0 to 100% scale.
- Player prop lineA player prop line is the number a sportsbook posts for one player's stat in one game, such as 24.5 points, with a price on the over and a price on the under.
- Market-anchored probabilityA market-anchored probability starts from the sportsbook's no-vig price for a game and lets a model change it only where testing has shown the model adds information.
- MiddleA middle is a gap between two sportsbooks' numbers on the same prop, such as one book's over 24.5 and another's under 26.5, where a result inside the gap wins both sides.
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This page explains arithmetic and vocabulary. It does not recommend a bet, a side, an amount or a sportsbook, and the examples are illustrations. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.