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MLB player prop trends

Where a player's own games in tonight's situations and the books' no-vig price disagree by more than luck usually explains, plus team trends for the day's games. History, not a pick.
About this page
334 of 2,235 splits cleared the bar on 299 priced MLB props; about 20 would clear it by luck alone. History, not a pick.

MLBplayer insights

2,235 splits checked; 334 cleared the bar, and about 20 would clear it by luck alone if the books were exactly right.

It is the postseason. These splits compare a player's regular-season games with playoff prices, and roles, lineups and usage change in October. Far more splits clear the bar than luck alone explains, so read each one as a place to look, not as a finding.

  1. David Fry
    David Fry
    CLE @ CWS · Wed 4:00 PM ET
    Hits+Runs+RBIs 0.5

    David Fry has gone over 0.5 hits + runs + RBIs in 9 of his last 10 games.

    Also cleared the bar (last 5): 5 of 5 on the over side.

    Last 10 · oldest to newest
    History
    ▲ 90%
    9 of 10
    90%: 65–98%
    Books
    32%
    fair chance
    Over 0.5, no-vig
    Best price
    +195 (opens BetMGM in a new tab)
    BetMGM
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Team trends for upcoming games

LAD at ATLTue 6:00 PM ET
Team trends for this game: each team's number and its rank in the league
MeasureLAD100-62 · last 162 gamesATL94-68 · last 162 gamesLeague
Walks per game3.88#3 of 302.87#28 of 303.36
Games scoring no runs1.9%#30 of 306.8%#11 of 306.2%
Runs scored (home at home, visitor on the road)5.26#1 of 304.78#9 of 304.48
Games with 5 or more runs scored43.8%#14 of 3045.7%#6 of 3043.3%
Strikeouts per game7.82#27 of 308.09#21 of 308.38
Runs allowed3.70#30 of 303.86#26 of 304.48

The 6 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 30 ranked teams, over each team's last 162 regular-season games (Mar 2026 – Sep 2026). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.

MIL at SDTue 9:30 PM ET
Team trends for this game: each team's number and its rank in the league
MeasureMIL103-59 · last 162 gamesSD91-71 · last 162 gamesLeague
Hits per game8.78#1 of 308.11#19 of 308.20
Games scoring no runs3.7%#27 of 307.4%#9 of 306.2%
Home runs per game0.95#28 of 301.13#14 of 301.15
Runs scored (home at home, visitor on the road)4.75#6 of 304.26#19 of 304.48
Run margin+1.3#1 of 30+0.3#10 of 300.0
Games with 5 or more runs scored48.8%#3 of 3045.1%#8 of 3043.3%

The 6 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 30 ranked teams, over each team's last 162 regular-season games (Mar 2026 – Sep 2026). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.

CLE at CWSWed 4:00 PM ET
Team trends for this game: each team's number and its rank in the league
MeasureCLE85-77 · last 162 gamesCWS84-78 · last 162 gamesLeague
Home runs per game1.00#27 of 301.30#5 of 301.15
Strikeouts per game7.85#26 of 309.22#5 of 308.38
Runs scored4.19#24 of 304.79#5 of 304.48
Games with 5 or more runs scored40.1%#22 of 3048.8%#3 of 3043.3%
Games scoring no runs9.9%#2 of 306.8%#11 of 306.2%
Run margin (home at home, visitor on the road)+0.3#10 of 30+0.9#2 of 300.0

The 6 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 30 ranked teams, over each team's last 162 regular-season games (Mar 2026 – Sep 2026). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.

LAD at ATLWed 6:00 PM ET
Team trends for this game: each team's number and its rank in the league
MeasureLAD100-62 · last 162 gamesATL94-68 · last 162 gamesLeague
Walks per game3.88#3 of 302.87#28 of 303.36
Games scoring no runs1.9%#30 of 306.8%#11 of 306.2%
Runs scored (home at home, visitor on the road)5.26#1 of 304.78#9 of 304.48
Games with 5 or more runs scored43.8%#14 of 3045.7%#6 of 3043.3%
Strikeouts per game7.82#27 of 308.09#21 of 308.38
Runs allowed3.70#30 of 303.86#26 of 304.48

The 6 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 30 ranked teams, over each team's last 162 regular-season games (Mar 2026 – Sep 2026). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.

TB at NYYWed 8:00 PM ET
Team trends for this game: each team's number and its rank in the league
MeasureTB98-64 · last 162 gamesNYY94-68 · last 162 gamesLeague
Hits per game8.67#2 of 307.75#28 of 308.20
Strikeouts per game7.07#30 of 309.21#6 of 308.38
Games with 5 or more runs scored44.4%#13 of 3041.4%#20 of 3043.3%
Games decided by one run24.1%#29 of 3024.7%#24 of 3027.5%
Runs scored (home at home, visitor on the road)4.48#15 of 304.74#11 of 304.48
Runs allowed4.01#25 of 303.72#29 of 304.48

The 6 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 30 ranked teams, over each team's last 162 regular-season games (Sep 2025 – Sep 2026). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.

MIL at SDWed 10:00 PM ET
Team trends for this game: each team's number and its rank in the league
MeasureMIL103-59 · last 162 gamesSD91-71 · last 162 gamesLeague
Hits per game8.78#1 of 308.11#19 of 308.20
Games scoring no runs3.7%#27 of 307.4%#9 of 306.2%
Home runs per game0.95#28 of 301.13#14 of 301.15
Runs scored (home at home, visitor on the road)4.75#6 of 304.26#19 of 304.48
Run margin+1.3#1 of 30+0.3#10 of 300.0
Games with 5 or more runs scored48.8%#3 of 3045.1%#8 of 3043.3%

The 6 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 30 ranked teams, over each team's last 162 regular-season games (Mar 2026 – Sep 2026). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.

CLE at CWSThu 5:00 PM ET
Team trends for this game: each team's number and its rank in the league
MeasureCLE85-77 · last 162 gamesCWS84-78 · last 162 gamesLeague
Home runs per game1.00#27 of 301.30#5 of 301.15
Strikeouts per game7.85#26 of 309.22#5 of 308.38
Runs scored4.19#24 of 304.79#5 of 304.48
Games with 5 or more runs scored40.1%#22 of 3048.8%#3 of 3043.3%
Games scoring no runs9.9%#2 of 306.8%#11 of 306.2%
Run margin (home at home, visitor on the road)+0.3#10 of 30+0.9#2 of 300.0

The 6 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 30 ranked teams, over each team's last 162 regular-season games (Mar 2026 – Sep 2026). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.

TB at NYYThu 8:00 PM ET
Team trends for this game: each team's number and its rank in the league
MeasureTB98-64 · last 162 gamesNYY94-68 · last 162 gamesLeague
Hits per game8.67#2 of 307.75#28 of 308.20
Strikeouts per game7.07#30 of 309.21#6 of 308.38
Games with 5 or more runs scored44.4%#13 of 3041.4%#20 of 3043.3%
Games decided by one run24.1%#29 of 3024.7%#24 of 3027.5%
Runs scored (home at home, visitor on the road)4.48#15 of 304.74#11 of 304.48
Runs allowed4.01#25 of 303.72#29 of 304.48

The 6 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 30 ranked teams, over each team's last 162 regular-season games (Sep 2025 – Sep 2026). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.

SD at MILFri 4:30 PM ET
Team trends for this game: each team's number and its rank in the league
MeasureSD91-71 · last 162 gamesMIL103-59 · last 162 gamesLeague
Hits per game8.11#19 of 308.78#1 of 308.20
Games scoring no runs7.4%#9 of 303.7%#27 of 306.2%
Runs allowed (home at home, visitor on the road)4.62#16 of 303.47#30 of 304.48
Home runs per game1.13#14 of 300.95#28 of 301.15
Runs scored4.46#15 of 305.14#2 of 304.48
Games with 5 or more runs scored45.1%#8 of 3048.8%#3 of 3043.3%

The 6 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 30 ranked teams, over each team's last 162 regular-season games (Mar 2026 – Sep 2026). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.

ATL at LADFri 8:00 PM ET
Team trends for this game: each team's number and its rank in the league
MeasureATL94-68 · last 162 gamesLAD100-62 · last 162 gamesLeague
Walks per game2.87#28 of 303.88#3 of 303.36
Games scoring no runs6.8%#11 of 301.9%#30 of 306.2%
Games with 5 or more runs scored45.7%#6 of 3043.8%#14 of 3043.3%
Strikeouts per game8.09#21 of 307.82#27 of 308.38
Runs scored (home at home, visitor on the road)4.38#17 of 304.63#12 of 304.48
Runs allowed3.86#26 of 303.70#30 of 304.48

The 6 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 30 ranked teams, over each team's last 162 regular-season games (Mar 2026 – Sep 2026). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.

CWS at CLESat 5:00 PM ET
Team trends for this game: each team's number and its rank in the league
MeasureCWS84-78 · last 162 gamesCLE85-77 · last 162 gamesLeague
Home runs per game1.30#5 of 301.00#27 of 301.15
Strikeouts per game9.22#5 of 307.85#26 of 308.38
Runs scored4.79#5 of 304.19#24 of 304.48
Games with 5 or more runs scored48.8%#3 of 3040.1%#22 of 3043.3%
Runs allowed (home at home, visitor on the road)4.85#9 of 304.31#18 of 304.48
Games scoring no runs6.8%#11 of 309.9%#2 of 306.2%

The 6 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 30 ranked teams, over each team's last 162 regular-season games (Mar 2026 – Sep 2026). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.

NYY at TBSat 8:00 PM ET
Team trends for this game: each team's number and its rank in the league
MeasureNYY94-68 · last 162 gamesTB98-64 · last 162 gamesLeague
Hits per game7.75#28 of 308.67#2 of 308.20
Strikeouts per game9.21#6 of 307.07#30 of 308.38
Runs allowed (home at home, visitor on the road)3.43#30 of 303.98#23 of 304.48
Games with 5 or more runs scored41.4%#20 of 3044.4%#13 of 3043.3%
Run margin (home at home, visitor on the road)+1.0#3 of 30+0.6#8 of 300.0
Games decided by one run24.7%#24 of 3024.1%#29 of 3027.5%

The 6 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 30 ranked teams, over each team's last 162 regular-season games (Sep 2025 – Sep 2026). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.

Other sportsNFLCollege footballNBAWNBANHLCollege basketballAll sports

How a trend makes the list
  1. 1For every posted prop priced on both sides, the player's own games are split by the situations tonight really has: recent form, this season, home or road, this opponent, rest and so on (each sport's insights page lists them).
  2. 2Each split is compared with the books' no-vig chance of the same side, not with 50%. Only props the books price between 20% and 80% are tested.
  3. 3A split makes the list only if, from at least 5 games, the 99% range for the player's true rate does not include that chance. A situation that covers 90% or more of his games is his whole history under another name and is not tested.
  4. 4Splits are ranked by the gap after pulling his rate toward the price, with one card a prop (its strongest split; a second split on the same side is a line under it) and at most three a player. Read it as a place to look: the books may know about a role change, an injury or a matchup the history does not, and some of the list is luck by construction.

Soccer has no player prop insights: its props (anytime goal, anytime assist, shots on target) are yes-only, so there is no number and no under, and no two-way price to compare a player's history with. UFC has none either: it has fight lines, not player props. Both sports still have their own game pages and boards.

Player props across every sport →MLB prop insights, with the full method →Line shopping →

New to props? What a prop line isNo-vig (fair) oddsReading a hit rateWhat "moved" meansAll terms

Questions and answers

What are player prop trends?
Spots where a player's own games, in the situations tonight's game really has, sit far from the sportsbooks' own price for the same prop. They are history set against the market, shown with the sample size, a 90% range and the books' no-vig chance. They are not picks and no record of them is kept.
How does a trend make the list?
Every split of a player's games (home or road, this opponent, rest and so on) is compared with the books' no-vig chance of the same side. It stays only if, from at least 5 games, the 99% range for his true rate does not include that chance. The list is then ranked by the gap, with one card a prop (its strongest split; a second split on the same side is a line under it) and at most three a player.
How many MLB trends are luck?
Testing many splits at a strict bar still lets some through by chance. Right now, MLB: 2,235 checked, 334 cleared, about 20 by luck. Treat the list as places to look, not as findings.
What is free and what is Pro here?
Every sport's top-ranked trend and every team trend are free. The rest of each sport's list is part of Pro. The props boards, the player pages and the team trends stay free.
Are there trends for soccer or UFC?
Soccer has no player prop insights: its props (anytime goal, anytime assist, shots on target) are yes-only, so there is no number and no under, and no two-way price to compare a player's history with. UFC has none either: it has fight lines, not player props. Both sports still have their own game pages and boards.

Lines come from regulated US sportsbooks and can lag what a book shows right now. Each game is measured against tonight's line, not the number that game actually had. Trends describe past games, none of them is a recommendation, and no record of them is kept. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.