How the UFC model is tested
How a pick is made
Team strength, built from the games themselves. It calls who wins, how and when.
- Record and form
- Striking
- Grappling
- How they hold up when hit
- Physical traits and age
- Time off
- The matchup
The exact inputs and how they are weighted stay private.
A priced bout's win chance is the market's no-vig price. The model decides only the bouts nobody has priced.
Tuned on old seasons, frozen, then scored on games it had never seen.
A change ships only if it holds up there. Most ideas don't, and they stay out.
Every pick is stored before the card.
It can update until then. The version at the card is the one graded, and it can't be edited after.
Graded after the final, misses included, nothing deleted.
Winners are the record: no spread or over/under records. Every pick is in the ledger →
- Camp and injuries.It can't see training camp, injuries or weight cuts.
- Thin tape.Debutants sit close to average.
23 UFC picks locked for the games ahead. Every one grades here for free after the final. Seeing them before the start is Pro.
See the picks →Start 7-day free trialHow it has held up
UFC: when it said 70%, did it win 70%?Each lane is a confidence band. Calibrated means the dot lands in its gray band; the bar shows luck's range.
Yes so far: all 4 bands with enough picks landed where they said, within luck's range.
- Said50–60%62%41 of 66
- Said60–70%66%35 of 53
- Said70–80%72%31 of 43
- Said80–90%93%14 of 15
Live picks on main UFC cards, locked before their card segment started. Lanes with fewer than 10 graded picks are faded.
Expected vs actual winnersThe dashed line is the wins its own probabilities expected, shaded for luck's 90% band. Solid is what happened.
Dotted line, pick 100: the method changed. Before it the calls were the model alone; after it a priced game’s number follows the market’s price, so the stretches are not the same product.
The solid line ends inside the shaded band: the record is where honest probabilities would put it.
Show as a table
| After pick | Date | Won | Expected | 90% band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Jul 25 | 19 | 14.5 | 10.9–18.1 |
| 44 | Aug 8 | 36 | 28.5 | 23.4–33.7 |
| 66 | Sep 12 | 50 | 42.2 | 35.8–48.5 |
| 89 | Sep 26 | 64 | 56.9 | 49.6–64.2 |
| 111 | Oct 3 | 79 | 71.8 | 63.7–79.9 |
| 133 | Oct 17 | 92 | 85.8 | 76.9–94.7 |
| 155 | Oct 31 | 106 | 99.6 | 90.0–109.2 |
| 177 | Nov 7 | 121 | 115.0 | 104.7–125.2 |
A model read is information, not advice to bet. Past results do not guarantee future ones. Data and analytics only, not betting advice: any bet is your own decision, and we are not responsible for losses. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.