How the NHL model is tested
How a pick is made
Team strength, built from the games themselves. It calls who wins, overtime and shootouts included.
- Every game's result
- Home ice
- Last season's strength
The exact inputs and how they are weighted stay private.
When books price a game, the win chance is the market's no-vig price, so picks usually match the favorite. The model decides the games the books haven't priced.
Tuned on old seasons, frozen, then scored on games it had never seen.
A change ships only if it holds up there. Most ideas don't, and they stay out.
Every pick is stored before puck drop.
It can update until then. The version at puck drop is the one graded, and it can't be edited after.
Graded after the final, misses included, nothing deleted.
Winners are the record: no spread or over/under records. Every pick is in the ledger →
68 NHL picks locked for the games ahead. Every one grades here for free after the final. Seeing them before the start is Pro.
See the picks →Start 7-day free trialHow it has held up
NHL: when it said 70%, did it win 70%?Each lane is a confidence band. Calibrated means the dot lands in its gray band; the bar shows luck's range.
Yes so far: all 5 bands with enough picks landed where they said, within luck's range.
- Said50–55%50%56 of 111
- Said55–60%62%46 of 74
- Said60–65%70%40 of 57
- Said65–70%71%22 of 31
- Said70–100%95%18 of 19
Live picks, locked before the start. Backtest: walk-forward backtest of the ratings alone, held-out seasons 2019–26, not in the record. Lanes with fewer than 10 graded picks are faded.
Expected vs actual winnersThe dashed line is the wins its own probabilities expected, shaded for luck's 90% band. Solid is what happened.
The solid line ends inside the shaded band: the record is where honest probabilities would put it.
Show as a table
| After pick | Date | Won | Expected | 90% band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | Oct 4 | 19 | 21.4 | 16.5–26.3 |
| 73 | Oct 10 | 44 | 42.6 | 35.7–49.4 |
| 110 | Oct 15 | 68 | 64.0 | 55.5–72.4 |
| 146 | Oct 20 | 92 | 85.3 | 75.6–95.0 |
| 183 | Oct 25 | 115 | 106.7 | 95.8–117.6 |
| 219 | Oct 31 | 135 | 127.5 | 115.6–139.4 |
| 256 | Nov 5 | 158 | 149.5 | 136.6–162.3 |
| 292 | Nov 10 | 182 | 170.5 | 156.7–184.2 |
NHL backtest · not in the recordEvery game priced only from what was known before it, then scored once. Kept apart from the record.
Walk-forward backtest of the ratings alone, held-out seasons 2019–26.
A model read is information, not advice to bet. Past results do not guarantee future ones. Data and analytics only, not betting advice: any bet is your own decision, and we are not responsible for losses. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.