Pistons at Heat: NBA, Oct 23, 2026

Model pick: Pistons (53%), locked Oct 23; Pistons won 128–111 (graded a hit).

Detroit Pistons

Miami Heat

128–111

Final

Win probability

DET 53%

47% MIA

Detroit Pistons won, 128–111. The pick was Detroit Pistons at 53% — correct.

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Margin the probability implies

DET by 0.9

DET win probability

53%

Right at this confidence

13 of 23

Too early to read: 23 graded at 50–60%

Winner picks only. Where books price a game, the win probability follows the market's no-vig price; the team ratings decide games nobody has priced. The ratings alone were tested on games they were not tuned on, and every pick is locked before tip-off and graded after the final, in the public record. How the model works →

Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.