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The Heat (43-39 in 2025–26) host the Pistons (60-22 in 2025–26) on Oct 23, 2026, 8:00 PM ET.
Lines post the day of the game.
Lines post the morning of the game and are updated through the day.
The model's winner call: locked before the start, graded in public, built on the market's price.
The current report, a live snapshot.
Times are when the report changed on our end, last 30 days.
DET offense ranks better in 2 of 4 matchups · MIA defense in 2 (1 by a clear margin)
MIA offense ranks better in 1 of 4 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · DET defense in 3 (1 by a clear margin)
Season box-score numbers; ranks of 30 teams. A defense ranks well for allowing less and forcing more turnovers.
DETMIA
Expected pace: about 105 possessions a team (the two teams' average). Rank among 30 teams, 1st = best.
Rank 1 allows the most. Each defense's last 17 games from box scores, against the average defense. Books already price matchups: this is where to look, not a bet.
DETMIANo lines posted yet: research the rotation against any number
Jalen Duren's full breakdown holds the game-by-game chart, hit-rate splits and filters, the what-if line and market curve, every book and the line history, closing lines, the projected range, teammates and matchup tools. Checking your player views…
Checking your player views…| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniss Jenkins | 31.4 | 16.0 | 3.9 | 6.9 |
| Jalen Duren | 30.4 | 22.8 | 10.2 | 3.2 |
| Ausar Thompson | 27.5 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 3.9 |
| Duncan Robinson | 26.6 | 13.8 | 2.6 | 2.3 |
| Tobias Harris | 25.5 | 13.3 | 5.1 | 3.7 |
| Kevin Huerter | 24.3 | 11.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 |
| Cade Cunningham | 20.3 | 10.0 | 4.3 | 7.8 |
| Caris LeVert | 18.7 | 8.0 | 2.6 | 2.9 |
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo | 35.1 | 20.4 | 11.1 | 4.4 |
| Tyler Herro | 32.2 | 18.2 | 5.2 | 4.8 |
| Pelle Larsson | 30.6 | 14.3 | 3.8 | 3.3 |
| Davion Mitchell | 29.7 | 11.0 | 2.6 | 5.6 |
| Norman Powell | 27.6 | 17.6 | 2.8 | 1.9 |
| Andrew Wiggins | 27.2 | 12.7 | 3.5 | 2.1 |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 26.2 | 17.1 | 3.8 | 4.6 |
| Kel'el Ware | 20.0 | 10.0 | 7.4 | 1.5 |
DET offenseper gameMIA defenseRank among 30 teams, 1st = best; a longer bar is a better rank. A defense ranks well for allowing less: lower shooting percentages, fewer points and rebounds, more turnovers forced.
2025–26 · points a game by shot type · rank 1 = the most in the league · the tick on each bar is the league average
DET offense vs MIA defenseMIA offense vs DET defenseFrom play-by-play: transition = the first shot within 7 seconds of a defensive rebound, turnover or opponent score; putback = within 3 seconds of the team's own offensive rebound; the rest by the shot label (spot-up = the plain jump shot). Free throws from the box score. Hover a number for the league average. An approximation of play types, not tracking data.
DETForAgainst52% of DET's points come in the first half, 50% for the average team.
MIAForAgainst50% of MIA's points come in the first half, 50% for the average team.
Average points per game in each period, from box scores, over a team's last 17 games; overtime is pooled into the second half and the game. History, not a forecast: a team that leads late plays differently than one that trails, and a small window swings.
DET 4series6 MIA| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | DET 110 | MIA 121 | MIA+11 | +11 |
| Jan 1, 2026 | MIA 118 | DET 112 | MIA+6 | +6 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2025 | DET 138 | MIA 135 | DET+3 | +3 |
| Mar 19, 2025 | DET 116 | MIA 113 | DET+3 | +3 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2024 | MIA 124 | DET 125 | DET+1 | +1 |
| Nov 12, 2024 | MIA 121 | DET 123 | DET+2 | +2 |
| Oct 28, 2024 | DET 98 | MIA 106 | MIA+8 | +8 |
| Mar 17, 2024 | MIA 104 | DET 101 | MIA+3 | +3 |
| Mar 15, 2024 | MIA 108 | DET 95 | MIA+13 | +13 |
| Mar 5, 2024 | DET 110 | MIA 118 | MIA+8 | +8 |
From box scores and play-by-play. Ratings are per 100 possessions (possessions estimated from box scores). Prop lines from DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM; hit rates are past games against a number, not a forecast or a pick. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
| Measure | DET60-22 · last 82 games | MIA43-39 · last 82 games | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3rd quarter points against | 27.1#28 of 30 | 30.1#7 of 30 | 29.2 |
| 3rd quarter points for | 28.9#22 of 30 | 30.0#8 of 30 | 29.2 |
| Possessions per game | 102.9#15 of 30 | 106.2#1 of 30 | 102.5 |
| Points allowed per 100 possessions | 106.5#29 of 30 | 111.6#17 of 30 | 112.7 |
The 4 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 30 ranked teams, over each team's last 82 regular-season games (Oct 2025 – Apr 2026). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.