Nuggets at Thunder: NBA, Oct 22, 2026

Model pick: Thunder (74%), locked Oct 22; Thunder won 96–84 (graded a hit).

Denver Nuggets

Oklahoma City Thunder

84–96

Final

Win probability

DEN 26%

74% OKC

Oklahoma City Thunder won, 96–84. The pick was Oklahoma City Thunder at 74% — correct.

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Margin the probability implies

OKC by 6.3

OKC win probability

74%

Right at this confidence

9 of 12

Too early to read: 12 graded at 70–80%

Winner picks only. Where books price a game, the win probability follows the market's no-vig price; the team ratings decide games nobody has priced. The ratings alone were tested on games they were not tuned on, and every pick is locked before tip-off and graded after the final, in the public record. How the model works →

Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.