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The Thunder (64-18 in 2025–26) host the Nuggets (54-28 in 2025–26) on Oct 22, 2026, 9:30 PM ET.
Lines post the day of the game.
Lines post the morning of the game and are updated through the day.
The model's winner call: locked before the start, graded in public, built on the market's price.
The current report, a live snapshot.
Times are when the report changed on our end, last 30 days.
DEN offense ranks better in 1 of 4 matchups · OKC defense in 3 (1 by a clear margin)
OKC offense ranks better in 2 of 4 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · DEN defense in 2 (1 by a clear margin)
Season box-score numbers; ranks of 30 teams. A defense ranks well for allowing less and forcing more turnovers.
DENOKC
Expected pace: about 102 possessions a team (the two teams' average). Rank among 30 teams, 1st = best.
Rank 1 allows the most. Each defense's last 17 games from box scores, against the average defense. Books already price matchups: this is where to look, not a bet.
DENOKCNo lines posted yet: research the rotation against any number
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's full breakdown holds the game-by-game chart, hit-rate splits and filters, the what-if line and market curve, every book and the line history, closing lines, the projected range, teammates and matchup tools. Checking your player views…
Checking your player views…| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray | 37.1 | 24.0 | 4.8 | 7.2 |
| Nikola Jokic | 35.4 | 24.0 | 13.6 | 11.8 |
| Christian Braun | 31.7 | 14.6 | 4.3 | 2.3 |
| Cameron Johnson | 31.2 | 15.1 | 4.1 | 2.8 |
| Aaron Gordon | 29.0 | 15.0 | 5.0 | 3.1 |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 24.0 | 12.1 | 2.4 | 1.6 |
| Bruce Brown | 22.1 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 2.1 |
| David Roddy | 20.3 | 12.7 | 5.3 | 0.7 |
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 31.7 | 28.5 | 3.4 | 6.4 |
| Chet Holmgren | 27.2 | 16.6 | 8.3 | 1.4 |
| Jalen Williams | 25.9 | 15.4 | 4.4 | 5.7 |
| Ajay Mitchell | 23.6 | 10.8 | 2.9 | 3.3 |
| Cason Wallace | 22.8 | 7.8 | 2.9 | 2.2 |
| Nikola Topic | 21.6 | 7.2 | 2.2 | 6.8 |
| Luguentz Dort | 21.0 | 7.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | 20.3 | 5.8 | 10.1 | 3.6 |
DEN offenseper gameOKC defenseRank among 30 teams, 1st = best; a longer bar is a better rank. A defense ranks well for allowing less: lower shooting percentages, fewer points and rebounds, more turnovers forced.
2025–26 · points a game by shot type · rank 1 = the most in the league · the tick on each bar is the league average
DEN offense vs OKC defenseOKC offense vs DEN defenseFrom play-by-play: transition = the first shot within 7 seconds of a defensive rebound, turnover or opponent score; putback = within 3 seconds of the team's own offensive rebound; the rest by the shot label (spot-up = the plain jump shot). Free throws from the box score. Hover a number for the league average. An approximation of play types, not tracking data.
DENForAgainst50% of DEN's points come in the first half, 50% for the average team.
OKCForAgainst50% of OKC's points come in the first half, 50% for the average team.
Average points per game in each period, from box scores, over a team's last 17 games; overtime is pooled into the second half and the game. History, not a forecast: a team that leads late plays differently than one that trails, and a small window swings.
DEN 3series7 OKC| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2026 | OKC 107 | DEN 127 | DEN+20 | +20 |
| Mar 9, 2026 | DEN 126 | OKC 129 | OKC+3 | +3 |
| Feb 27, 2026 | DEN 121 | OKC 127 | OKC+6 | +6 |
| Feb 1, 2026 | OKC 121 | DEN 111 | OKC+10 | +10 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2025 | DEN 91 | OKC 94 | OKC+3 | +3 |
| May 18, 2025 | DEN 93 | OKC 125 | OKC+32 | +32 |
| May 15, 2025 | OKC 107 | DEN 119 | DEN+12 | +12 |
| May 13, 2025 | DEN 105 | OKC 112 | OKC+7 | +7 |
| May 11, 2025 | OKC 92 | DEN 87 | OKC+5 | +5 |
| May 9, 2025 | OKC 104 | DEN 113 | DEN+9 | +9 |
From box scores and play-by-play. Ratings are per 100 possessions (possessions estimated from box scores). Prop lines from DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM; hit rates are past games against a number, not a forecast or a pick. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
| Measure | DEN54-28 · last 82 games | OKC64-18 · last 82 games | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half points against | 59.6#5 of 30 | 54.7#26 of 30 | 57.5 |
| Points allowed per 100 possessions | 114.5#10 of 30 | 105.1#30 of 30 | 112.7 |
| 4th quarter points for | 29.1#3 of 30 | 27.9#13 of 30 | 27.7 |
| Margin per 100 possessions | +5.0#7 of 30 | +10.9#1 of 30 | 0.0 |
The 4 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 30 ranked teams, over each team's last 82 regular-season games (Oct 2025 – Apr 2026). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.