The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
70%San José State SpartansSolid✓
Built on the market's no-vig price. Model alone: San José State Spartans 66%.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
SJSU by 7.3market SJSU by 6.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
53.8 pointsmarket 46.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has San José State Spartans at 70% to win, with the market at SJSU by 6.5.
SJSU has the advantage in passing: SJSU passing ranks #72, UTEP defends it at #136; the other way UTEP #134 into SJSU's #53.
SJSU has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: SJSU points / scoring opportunity ranks #110, UTEP defends it at #123; the other way UTEP #137 into SJSU's #30.
Form: SJSU has the better last five games by 25.6 points a game (UTEP -29.0, SJSU -3.4).
Home field is with UTEP, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it SJSU by 7.3 against a market SJSU by 6.5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 53.8 against a line of 46.5: 7.3 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model SJSU by 7.3 · market SJSU by 6.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
SJSU
Clear advantage
SJSU passing ranks #72, UTEP defends it at #136; the other way UTEP #134 into SJSU's #53.
Rushing game
SJSU
Slight advantage
SJSU rushing ranks #113, UTEP defends it at #114; the other way UTEP #119 into SJSU's #77.
Third down & red zone
SJSU
Clear advantage
SJSU points / scoring opportunity ranks #110, UTEP defends it at #123; the other way UTEP #137 into SJSU's #30.
Big plays
UTEP
Slight advantage
UTEP pass explosiveness ranks #14, SJSU defends it at #32; the other way SJSU #115 into UTEP's #82.
Pass protection & rush
SJSU
Clear advantage
SJSU sack rate ranks #99, UTEP defends it at #125; the other way UTEP #137 into SJSU's #4.
Ball security
SJSU
Slight advantage
SJSU turnovers / game ranks #51, UTEP defends it at #79; the other way UTEP #102 into SJSU's #85.
Form (last 5)
SJSU
Clear advantage
UTEP −29.0 per game over the last five, SJSU −3.4.
Market
SJSU
Clear advantage
Consensus has SJSU by 6.5; the model says SJSU by 7.3.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,330 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket SJSU by 6.5 · model SJSU by 7.3
Mkt SJSU 6.5
Model SJSU 7.3
← SJSU by 28tieUTEP by 28 →
3.5% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 7. Most common margins: 3 (9.7%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 46.5 · model 53.8
Mkt 46.5
Model 53.8
24 pts6096 pts
16.5% of FBS games finish between 46.5 and 53.8. The league’s median total since 2023 is 52.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
Spread
Sharp side: UTEPModel disagrees
Opened
SJSU -9.5
→
Market maker now
SJSU -6.75
▲ 2.3 since open
→
Retail now
SJSU -6.5
in line
24 moves8 books4 led
Sun, Oct 11, 10:10 PM first sharp move: SJSU -9.5 → SJSU -7.5
No books followed within six hours
Total
Sharp side: the underModel disagrees
Opened
49
→
Market maker now
46.8
▼ 2 since open
→
Retail now
46.5
in line
26 moves8 books1 led
Mon, Oct 12, 7:49 PM first sharp move: 49 → 47
5 books followed within six hours
Retail was still 48.5 at that point
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
