The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
87%Oregon State BeaversStrong✓
Built on the market's no-vig price. Model alone: Oregon State Beavers 64%.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
ORST by 6.3market ORST by 18.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
50.3 pointsmarket 52.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Oregon State Beavers at 87% to win, with the market at ORST by 18.5.
ORST has the advantage in passing: ORST passing ranks #17, WSU defends it at #66; the other way WSU #133 into ORST's #56.
ORST has the advantage in rushing: ORST rushing ranks #18, WSU defends it at #104; the other way WSU #111 into ORST's #81.
Form: ORST has the better last five games by 46.2 points a game (ORST +32.2, WSU -14.0).
Home field is with ORST, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it ORST by 6.3 against a market ORST by 18.5: 12.2 points of daylight in WSU's favour. The model's total is 50.3 against a line of 52.5: 2.2 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model ORST by 6.3 · market ORST by 18.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
ORST
Clear advantage
ORST passing ranks #17, WSU defends it at #66; the other way WSU #133 into ORST's #56.
Rushing game
ORST
Clear advantage
ORST rushing ranks #18, WSU defends it at #104; the other way WSU #111 into ORST's #81.
Third down & red zone
ORST
Clear advantage
ORST third-down conversion ranks #25, WSU defends it at #84; the other way WSU #131 into ORST's #73.
Big plays
ORST
Slight advantage
ORST pass explosiveness ranks #44, WSU defends it at #97; the other way WSU #128 into ORST's #55.
Pass protection & rush
ORST
Clear advantage
ORST sack rate ranks #17, WSU defends it at #129; the other way WSU #123 into ORST's #42.
Ball security
ORST
Clear advantage
ORST turnovers / game ranks #9, WSU defends it at #130; the other way WSU #118 into ORST's #57.
Form (last 5)
ORST
Clear advantage
ORST +32.2 per game over the last five, WSU −14.0.
Market
ORST
Clear advantage
Consensus has ORST by 18.5; the model says ORST by 6.3.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,330 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket ORST by 18.5 · model ORST by 6.3
Mkt ORST 18.5
Model ORST 6.3
← WSU by 28tieORST by 28 →
20.0% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 7 and 10 and 14. Most common margins: 3 (9.7%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 52.5 · model 50.3
Mkt 52.5
Model 50.3
24 pts6096 pts
6.2% of FBS games finish between 52.5 and 50.3. The league’s median total since 2023 is 52.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
Spread
Sharp side: ORSTModel agrees
Opened
ORST -16.5
→
Market maker now
ORST -19
▲ 1.5 since open
→
Retail now
ORST -18.5
0.5 behind
34 moves8 books6 led
Wed, Oct 14, 10:11 PM first sharp move: ORST -17.5 → ORST -18.5
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still ORST -17.5 at that point
Total
Sharp side: the underModel agrees
Opened
53.5
→
Market maker now
52
▼ 1.3 since open
→
Retail now
52.5
0.5 behind
22 moves8 books3 led
Mon, Oct 12, 10:11 AM first sharp move: 53 → 53.5
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still 53.5 at that point
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
