The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
82%Louisiana Tech BulldogsStrong✓
Built on the market's no-vig price. Model alone: Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 84%.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
LT by 17.4market LT by 13.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
63.6 pointsmarket 55.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at 82% to win, with the market at LT by 13.5.
LT has the advantage in passing: LT passing ranks #29, ULM defends it at #113; the other way ULM #126 into LT's #15.
LT has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: LT third-down conversion ranks #32, ULM defends it at #124; the other way ULM #135 into LT's #60.
Rest: ULM has 7 more days since its last game (ULM 14d, LT 7d).
Form: LT has the better last five games by 20.2 points a game (ULM -13.0, LT +7.2).
Home field is with ULM, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it LT by 17.4 against a market LT by 13.5: 3.9 points of daylight in LT's favour. The model's total is 63.6 against a line of 55.5: 8.1 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model LT by 17.4 · market LT by 13.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
LT
Clear advantage
LT passing ranks #29, ULM defends it at #113; the other way ULM #126 into LT's #15.
Rushing game
LT
Slight advantage
LT rushing ranks #104, ULM defends it at #118; the other way ULM #116 into LT's #69.
Third down & red zone
LT
Clear advantage
LT third-down conversion ranks #32, ULM defends it at #124; the other way ULM #135 into LT's #60.
Big plays
=
Even
LT rush explosiveness ranks #21, ULM defends it at #74; the other way ULM #119 into LT's #130.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
LT sack rate ranks #90, ULM defends it at #45; the other way ULM #71 into LT's #12.
Ball security
LT
Clear advantage
LT turnovers / game ranks #61, ULM defends it at #114; the other way ULM #74 into LT's #9.
Form (last 5)
LT
Clear advantage
ULM −13.0 per game over the last five, LT +7.2.
Market
LT
Clear advantage
Consensus has LT by 13.5; the model says LT by 17.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,330 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket LT by 13.5 · model LT by 17.4
Mkt LT 13.5
Model LT 17.4
← LT by 28tieULM by 28 →
3.8% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 14. Most common margins: 3 (9.7%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 55.5 · model 63.6
Mkt 55.5
Model 63.6
24 pts6096 pts
16.6% of FBS games finish between 55.5 and 63.6. The league’s median total since 2023 is 52.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
Spread
Sharp side: ULMModel disagrees
Opened
LT -14.5
→
Market maker now
LT -13.25
▲ 1.3 since open
→
Retail now
LT -13.5
in line
30 moves8 books7 ledSteam Sat, Oct 17, 2:10 PM
Thu, Oct 15, 10:10 PM first sharp move: LT -14.5 → LT -15
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still LT -15.5 at that point
Total
No sharp side yet
Opened
54.5
→
Market maker now
56
▲ 0.3 since open
→
Retail now
55.8
in line
49 moves8 books2 ledSteam Thu, Oct 15, 7:49 PM
Sun, Oct 11, 7:49 PM first sharp move: 54.5 → 55.5
No books followed within six hours
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
