The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
54%UCLA BruinsLean✓
Built on the market's no-vig price. Model alone: UCLA Bruins 69%.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
UCLA by 8.7market UCLA by 1.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
42.6 pointsmarket 42.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has UCLA Bruins at 54% to win, with the market at UCLA by 1.5.
UCLA has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: UCLA third-down conversion ranks #23, WIS defends it at #83; the other way WIS #45 into UCLA's #3.
UCLA has the advantage in rushing: UCLA rushing ranks #25, WIS defends it at #51; the other way WIS #35 into UCLA's #1.
Counterpoint: big plays favours WIS. WIS pass explosiveness ranks #58, UCLA defends it at #126; the other way UCLA #79 into WIS's #3. The pick still lands on UCLA because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: WIS has 7 more days since its last game (UCLA 7d, WIS 14d).
Home field is with UCLA, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it UCLA by 8.7 against a market UCLA by 1.5: 7.2 points of daylight in UCLA's favour. The model's total is 42.6 against a line of 42.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model UCLA by 8.7 · market UCLA by 1.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
UCLA passing ranks #100, WIS defends it at #6; the other way WIS #110 into UCLA's #3.
Rushing game
UCLA
Slight advantage
UCLA rushing ranks #25, WIS defends it at #51; the other way WIS #35 into UCLA's #1.
Third down & red zone
UCLA
Slight advantage
UCLA third-down conversion ranks #23, WIS defends it at #83; the other way WIS #45 into UCLA's #3.
Big plays
WIS
Clear advantage
WIS pass explosiveness ranks #58, UCLA defends it at #126; the other way UCLA #79 into WIS's #3.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
UCLA sack rate ranks #62, WIS defends it at #109; the other way WIS #39 into UCLA's #74.
Ball security
=
Even
WIS turnovers / game ranks #35, UCLA defends it at #2; the other way UCLA #114 into WIS's #80.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
UCLA +19.0 per game over the last five, WIS +16.6.
Market
UCLA
Slight advantage
Consensus has UCLA by 1.5; the model says UCLA by 8.7.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,330 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket UCLA by 1.5 · model UCLA by 8.7
Mkt UCLA 1.5
Model UCLA 8.7
← WIS by 28tieUCLA by 28 →
17.3% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 3 and 7. Most common margins: 3 (9.7%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 42.5 · model 42.6
Mkt 42.5
Model 42.6
24 pts6096 pts
Model and market agree on the total to within half a point. The league’s median total since 2023 is 52.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
Spread
Sharp side: WISModel disagrees
Opened
UCLA -3
→
Market maker now
UCLA -1.5
▼ 2 since open
→
Retail now
UCLA -1.5
in line
34 moves8 books9 ledSteam Mon, Oct 12, 4:49 PM
Sun, Oct 11, 7:49 PM first sharp move: UCLA -3.5 → UCLA -3
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still UCLA -2.5 at that point
Total
Sharp side: the underModel disagrees
Opened
49.5
→
Market maker now
42.5
▼ 4 since open
→
Retail now
42.5
in line
38 moves8 books4 ledSteam Mon, Oct 12, 4:49 PM
Mon, Oct 12, 4:49 PM first sharp move: 46.5 → 45
7 books followed within six hours
Retail was still 46.5 at that point
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
