Memphis at Tulane: College Football Week 7, Oct 16, 2026

Model pick: Memphis (68%), locked Oct 16; Tulane won 31–17 (graded a miss).

Memphis Tigers

6-2

Modelpredicted

25 – 24

Fri, Oct 16, 7:30 PM ET

Yulman Stadium · 85° · 10 mph wind

Conference game

Final

Tulane Green Wave

3-4

MarketSpread MEM -6.5Total 55.5Moneyline MEM -258 · TULN +2108 books · best MEM -250 BetMGM · TULN +215 FanDuel

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The pick

locked before kickoff

Win chance

68%Memphis TigersSolid✗

Built on the market's no-vig price. Model alone: Memphis Tigers 52%.

Model margin

MEM by 1.0market MEM by 6.5

Model total

48.5 pointsmarket 55.5

Why the model calls it

The model has Memphis Tigers at 68% to win, with the market at MEM by 6.5.
MEM has the advantage in passing: MEM passing ranks #20, TULN defends it at #60; the other way TULN #103 into MEM's #26.
MEM has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: MEM third-down conversion ranks #53, TULN defends it at #135; the other way TULN #87 into MEM's #17.
Counterpoint: big plays favours TULN. TULN rush explosiveness ranks #1, MEM defends it at #122; the other way MEM #94 into TULN's #85. The pick still lands on MEM because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: MEM has the better last five games by 22.6 points a game (TULN -4.0, MEM +18.6).
Home field is with TULN, which the pick has to overcome.

ContextThe model makes it MEM by 1.0 against a market MEM by 6.5: 5.5 points of daylight in TULN's favour. The model's total is 48.5 against a line of 55.5: 7.0 points below it. The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.

Matchup context: who has the advantage

Model MEM by 1.0 · market MEM by 6.5

ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.

Passing game

MEM

Clear advantage

MEM passing ranks #20, TULN defends it at #60; the other way TULN #103 into MEM's #26.

Rushing game

Even

TULN rushing ranks #67, MEM defends it at #111; the other way MEM #53 into TULN's #90.

Third down & red zone

MEM

Clear advantage

MEM third-down conversion ranks #53, TULN defends it at #135; the other way TULN #87 into MEM's #17.

Big plays

TULN

Clear advantage

TULN rush explosiveness ranks #1, MEM defends it at #122; the other way MEM #94 into TULN's #85.

Pass protection & rush

MEM

Clear advantage

MEM sack rate ranks #69, TULN defends it at #82; the other way TULN #106 into MEM's #46.

Ball security

MEM

Slight advantage

MEM turnovers / game ranks #106, TULN defends it at #46; the other way TULN #117 into MEM's #10.

Form (last 5)

MEM

Clear advantage

TULN −4.0 per game over the last five, MEM +18.6.

Market

MEM

Clear advantage

Consensus has MEM by 6.5; the model says MEM by 1.0.

the market, for comparison

Where the lines sit

3,330 FBS games since 2023

Marginmarket MEM by 6.5 · model MEM by 1.0

Mkt MEM 6.5

Model MEM 1.0

← MEM by 28tieTULN by 28 →

11.1% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (9.7%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).

Totalmarket 55.5 · model 48.5

Mkt 55.5

Model 48.5

24 pts6096 pts

16.8% of FBS games finish between 55.5 and 48.5. The league’s median total since 2023 is 52.

Sharp read

tap to open

Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.

Spread

No sharp side yet

Opened

MEM -7

Market maker now

MEM -6.5

▲ 0.3 since open

Retail now

MEM -6.5

in line

18 moves8 books0 led

Wed, Oct 14, 1:49 PM first sharp move: MEM -6.5 → MEM -7
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still MEM -7 at that point

Total

Sharp side: the overModel disagrees

Opened

54.5

Market maker now

55.3

▲ 2.3 since open

Retail now

55.5

in line

42 moves8 books13 ledSteam Fri, Oct 16, 12:10 PM

Sun, Oct 11, 4:49 PM first sharp move: 52.5 → 53.5
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still 54.5 at that point

The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.

Memphis at Tulane: College Football Week 7, Oct 16, 2026

The pickiThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.

Why the model calls itiThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.

Matchup context: who has the advantageiWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.

Where the lines sitiWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.

Sharp read

Memphis at Tulane: College Football Week 7, Oct 16, 2026

The pickiThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.

Why the model calls itiThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.

Matchup context: who has the advantageiWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.

Where the lines sitiWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.

Sharp read

The pick

Why the model calls it

Matchup context: who has the advantage

Where the lines sit

The pick

Why the model calls it

Matchup context: who has the advantage

Where the lines sit