The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
51%UAlbany Great DanesLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
ALB by 0.4market BUFF by 18.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
53.5 pointsmarket 47.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has UAlbany Great Danes at 51% to win, with the market at BUFF by 18.5.
No single matchup area stands out; the call rests on the teams' overall results this season, adjusted for who they played.
Form: BUFF has the better last five games by 9.8 points a game (BUFF +5.8, ALB -4.0).
Home field is with BUFF, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it ALB by 0.4 against a market BUFF by 18.5: 18.9 points of daylight in ALB's favour. The model's total is 53.5 against a line of 47.5: 6.0 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model ALB by 0.4 · market BUFF by 18.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor BUFF, but the model still picks ALB. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
–
—
not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Rushing game
–
—
not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Third down & red zone
–
—
not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Big plays
–
—
not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Pass protection & rush
–
—
not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Ball security
–
—
not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Form (last 5)
BUFF
Clear advantage
BUFF +5.8 per game over the last five, ALB −4.0.
Market
BUFF
Clear advantage
Consensus has BUFF by 18.5; the model says ALB by 0.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,330 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket BUFF by 18.5 · model ALB by 0.4
Mkt BUFF 18.5
Model ALB 0.4
← ALB by 28tieBUFF by 28 →
32.7% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 3 and 7 and 10 and 14. Most common margins: 3 (9.7%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 47.5 · model 53.5
Mkt 47.5
Model 53.5
24 pts6096 pts
14.5% of FBS games finish between 47.5 and 53.5. The league’s median total since 2023 is 52.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
