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ProbetricsProbetrics
Predictions

College Football picks and predictions, Week 5, 2025

About this page
Winner calls on every FBS game, graded each week, set beside the betting favorite; the model's own margin and total for context.
CFB dataModelFull results

Winners calledOnly picks locked before the start count. A pick made later, or priced after the fact, never enters it.

Locked before the start, graded after
Won–lost
268–64
Win rateWhere the true win rate likely sits (90% range). Under 30 picks, too early to read.
81%
90% range 77–84%
Graded
332
picks
Expected winsThe sum of its stated win probabilities. If those are right, wins land in this range 9 times in 10.
253.2
90% range 241.2–265.1
Win rate 81%90% rangeIts probabilities said 76%

Won 268. Its stated probabilities expected 253.2 (90% range 241.2–265.1): above that range, running ahead of what its probabilities said.

Betting favorite on the same 281 priced games: 235–46 (ours 220–61). When we took the other side: 10–25.

By method: model alone 225–48 (273), market-anchored 43–16 (59).

Backtest, not in the record: 70.9% of 1,893 games (walk-forward backtest of the model alone, 2024–26 seasons).

30 upcoming games with a model pick

Pro
Every pick, with its win probability and the reasoning. Locked before the start and graded in public; the record is always free.
Unlock the picks with Pro7-day free trial for new subscribers · cancel anytimeSee a real Pro page: NFL: Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints, a finished game →